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A mid-term report released by OPEC on Sunday forecast that non-OPEC supply from countries led by the United States would rise by 2.4 million bpd in 2019 while global oil demand should grow by just 1.5 million.

Opec expects global oil demand to reach almost 112 million barrels per day by 2040, driven by transportation and petrochemicals.

One is Venezuela, which has been faced with a sharp fall in production amid a deepening economic crisis and the threat of US sanctions. Trafigura co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said at APPEC that he sees US$90 oil by Christmas and US$100 in early 2019.

Global benchmark brent crude jumped more than 3 per cent on Monday to a four-year high above US$80 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation ruled out any immediate increase in production despite calls by US President Donald Trump for action to raise global supply.

OPEC isn't just grappling with USA sanctions cutting Iranian supply. Output in Venezuela is also slumping due to an economic crisis. The biggest source of new global supply, USA shale, is also experiencing growing pains as pipeline bottlenecks and workforce issues may hamper growth, he said.

OPEC said in a statement that it was satisfied with "the current oil market outlook", citing what it said was "an overall healthy balance between supply and demand".

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih also ruled out the need to use spare capacity to increase oil output.

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Kazempour Ardebili said Saudi Arabia had previously announced that it would make up for the missing Iranian oil barrels, stressing that the kingdom had not yet increased its output nor tapped into its strategic reserves to show that it could actually do what it had promised to do.

Most of the potential supply shortfall has already been priced into the contract, Again Capital's Kilduff said.

Major oil companies took some solace from OPEC's assurances.

Unipec, the trading unit of top Chinese refiner Sinopec, has put a plan to boost US crude imports on hold as it assesses the impact of the Asian nation's trade war with America, according to company president Chen Bo. Adding to positive sentiment are forecasts for a decline in US stockpiles.

"OPEC is struggling to battle through a ideal storm of strong demand and bigger-than-expected supply losses", said Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari, Commodity Strategists at ANZ Bank last week. "Thus the window period for oil prices to potentially extend gains is quite wide as Iran loses exports and OPEC+ remains on standby", Tchilinguirian said.

Rather than OPEC controlling prices, analysts have instead blamed Trump's latest round of sanctions on OPEC-member Iran for driving up the price, as supply from Tehran decreased.

At 0840 GMT, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in November soared to a peak of $80.94 per barrel. Brent rose on Tuesday to its highest since November 2014 at $82.55 per barrel.


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