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"We're on the verge of some significant volatility in Q4 2018 because depending on the severity and duration of the Iranian sanctions, the market simply does not have an adequate supply response for a 2 million barrel a day disappearance of oil from the markets", Jaeggi said.

For all these urgent supply pressures, the world's largest oil producers adopted a sit-back-and-wait approach at their meeting in the Algerian capital on Sunday.

Supply to the global oil market remains "satisfactory", Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday, after calls by US President Donald Trump for an immediate hike in output to reduce prices.

With Brent crude already jumping to an nearly four-year high on Monday, that's exactly the kind of price surge President Donald Trump has been seeking to prevent by pressuring the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise production. Trafigura co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said at APPEC that he sees US$90 oil by Christmas and US$100 in early 2019.

A decade ago, Brent crude surged to almost US$150 a barrel, only to crash just months later as high fuel prices and the global financial crisis triggered a slump in demand.

Kazempour Ardebili said Saudi Arabia had previously announced that it would make up for the missing Iranian oil barrels, stressing that the kingdom had not yet increased its output nor tapped into its strategic reserves to show that it could actually do what it had promised to do.

The threats of disruption as well as the early supply cuts have helped to lift Brent crude futures to almost $80 a barrel this month, a level not seen since 2014. That suggests OPEC's power to influence the market will be tempered by USA production for about another decade.

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This, the official added, would not change given that Russia's production would decline over the cold months of the year.

"They are doing little and late, to get prices higher", he said. However, the consensus has now moved to as much as 1.5 million barrels daily as the U.S.is "incredibly serious" about its measures, he said.

Oil prices were at their highest levels since 2014 in trading Monday, after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided not to raise output.

Brent has been trading just below $80 a barrel, backed by concerns of supply shortages from looming US sanctions against Iran, which are set to take effect in November. "We in Saudi Arabia have not seen demand for any additional barrel that we did not produce".

"All this will potentially reflect on oil prices".

Speaking to Bloomberg, Zanganeh warned that some oil producers are trying to create an alternative suppliers' forum that supports USA policies hostile to the government in Tehran.

Crude oil price curves are now in backwardation, with front-month contracts more expensive that later-dated futures.


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